Statistics / Football / Morocco. Botola Pro / FUS Rabat vs Amal Tiznit

FUS Rabat vs Amal Tiznit Statistics & Analysis

FUS Rabat FUS Rabat
Oct 02, 2026 - 16:00
0 1.29
1 1.31
xG Accuracy: 64%
Amal Tiznit Amal Tiznit
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Amal Tiznit Amal Tiznit ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 26, 2026 · 01:35 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10973208

Closing Odds 1.72
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Amal Tiznit win · FUS Rabat 0–1 Amal Tiznit
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Amal Tiznit (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Amal Tiznit (1X2) by about 16.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
FUS Rabat (1X2) 34.7 53.2 -18.5
Draw (1X2) 29.7 27.6 +2.1
Amal Tiznit (1X2) 35.6 19.3 +16.3
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 41.3 +6.9
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 58.7 -6.9
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 35.6% on Amal Tiznit (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 19.3%. The difference — about 16.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
FUS Rabat (1X2) 1.72 1.72 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.32 3.32 0.0
Amal Tiznit (1X2) 4.75 4.75 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.27 2.27 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.6 1.6 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Botola Pro
  • Fixture: FUS Rabat vs Amal Tiznit
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-02 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
  • xG (showing): FUS Rabat 1.29 — Amal Tiznit 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.5% · Implied: 43.8% · Probability edge: +10.7 pts · Est. EV: +19.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 04, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Botola Pro Botola Pro — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Maghreb Fès 2 2 0 0 6
2 UTS Rabat 2 2 0 0 6
3 Ittihad Tanger 2 1 1 0 4
4 CODM Meknès 2 1 0 1 3
5 Widad Témara 2 1 0 1 3
6 Kawkab Marrakech 2 1 0 1 3
7 Wydad AC 2 1 0 1 3
8 Raja Casablanca 1 1 0 0 3
9 Hassania Agadir 2 1 0 1 3
10 Amal Tiznit 2 1 0 1 3
11 Moghreb Tetouan 2 0 2 0 2
12 Renaissance Berkane 1 0 1 0 1
13 FAR Rabat 0 0 0 0 0
14 FUS Rabat 2 0 0 2 0
15 CR Khemis Zemamra 2 0 0 2 0
16 Difaa EL Jadida 2 0 0 2 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 CODM Meknès 2 6 3 +3 3
2 Maghreb Fès 2 4 2 +2 6
3 Ittihad Tanger 2 4 2 +2 4
4 Hassania Agadir 2 4 4 0 3
5 UTS Rabat 2 3 1 +2 6
6 Widad Témara 2 3 2 +1 3
7 Kawkab Marrakech 2 3 3 0 3
8 Wydad AC 2 3 3 0 3
9 Amal Tiznit 2 2 3 -1 3
10 Difaa EL Jadida 2 2 8 -6 0
11 Raja Casablanca 1 1 0 +1 3
12 Moghreb Tetouan 2 1 1 0 2
13 FUS Rabat 2 1 3 -2 0
14 CR Khemis Zemamra 2 1 3 -2 0
15 Renaissance Berkane 1 0 0 0 1
16 FAR Rabat 0 0 0 0 0