Statistics / Football / Paraguay. Division Intermedia / 12 de Junio VH vs SOL DE America

12 de Junio VH vs SOL DE America Statistics & Analysis

12 de Junio VH 12 de Junio VH
Oct 05, 2026 - 20:00
1 1.25
1 1.35
xG Accuracy: 85%
SOL DE America SOL DE America
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 SOL DE America Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 01:46 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11674005

Closing Odds 1.9
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · 12 de Junio VH 1–1 SOL DE America
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE10 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), SOL DE America (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on SOL DE America (1X2) by about 14.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
12 de Junio VH (1X2) 32.9 48.8 -15.9
Draw (1X2) 29.6 28.1 +1.5
SOL DE America (1X2) 37.6 23.2 +14.4
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 37.6% on SOL DE America (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 23.2%. The difference — about 14.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE10 → PRE1 · Book: draftkings

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE10) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
12 de Junio VH (1X2) 1.9 1.9 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.3 3.3 0.0
SOL DE America (1X2) 4.0 4.0 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Division Intermedia
  • Fixture: 12 de Junio VH vs SOL DE America
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-05 20:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.6%
  • xG (showing): 12 de Junio VH 1.25 — SOL DE America 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.5% · Implied: 45.2% · Probability edge: +9.3 pts · Est. EV: +14.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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Division Intermedia Division Intermedia — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Deportivo Santani 27 17 3 7 54
2 General Caballero 27 16 5 6 53
3 12 de Junio VH 27 14 8 5 50
4 Benjamín Aceval 27 12 6 9 42
5 SOL DE America 27 9 14 4 41
6 Independiente F.b.c. 27 10 10 7 40
7 Sportivo Carapeguá 27 11 6 10 39
8 Paraguari AC 27 11 5 11 38
9 Atlético Tembetary 27 10 6 11 36
10 Resistencia 27 9 8 10 35
11 Fernando De La Mora 27 9 7 11 34
12 Deportivo Capiata 27 6 11 10 29
13 3 de Noviembre 27 6 8 13 26
14 Guairena FC 27 6 7 14 25
15 Tacuary 27 4 12 11 24
16 Encarnación 27 6 4 17 22
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 General Caballero 27 54 33 +21 53
2 Deportivo Santani 27 46 25 +21 54
3 Benjamín Aceval 27 42 35 +7 42
4 Independiente F.b.c. 27 40 35 +5 40
5 Atlético Tembetary 27 39 42 -3 36
6 12 de Junio VH 27 36 27 +9 50
7 Paraguari AC 27 36 35 +1 38
8 SOL DE America 27 33 25 +8 41
9 3 de Noviembre 27 33 40 -7 26
10 Sportivo Carapeguá 27 32 39 -7 39
11 Resistencia 27 31 32 -1 35
12 Deportivo Capiata 27 31 37 -6 29
13 Fernando De La Mora 27 30 37 -7 34
14 Tacuary 27 30 43 -13 24
15 Encarnación 27 25 39 -14 22
16 Guairena FC 27 22 36 -14 25
Division Intermedia Paraguay. Division Intermedia Predictions