Statistics / Football / Paraguay. Division Intermedia / Guairena FC vs Fernando De La Mora

Guairena FC vs Fernando De La Mora Statistics & Analysis

Guairena FC Guairena FC
Sep 28, 2026 - 22:15
0 1.42
2 1.18
xG Accuracy: 54%
Fernando De La Mora Fernando De La Mora
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Guairena FC Fernando De La Mora ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 22, 2026 · 02:09 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10251766

Closing Odds 2.8
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Fernando De La Mora win · Guairena FC 0–2 Fernando De La Mora
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Guairena FC (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Guairena FC (1X2) by about 9.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Guairena FC (1X2) 41.0 31.8 +9.2
Draw (1X2) 29.4 29.9 -0.5
Fernando De La Mora (1X2) 29.6 38.3 -8.7
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 44.5 +3.7
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 55.5 -3.7
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 41.0% on Guairena FC (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 31.8%. The difference — about 9.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Guairena FC (1X2) 2.8 2.8 0.0
Draw (1X2) 2.97 2.97 0.0
Fernando De La Mora (1X2) 2.32 2.32 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.07 2.07 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.66 1.66 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Division Intermedia
  • Fixture: Guairena FC vs Fernando De La Mora
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-28 22:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Away 29.6%
  • xG (showing): Guairena FC 1.42 — Fernando De La Mora 1.18 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 44.0% · Probability edge: +4.1 pts · Est. EV: +3.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 06, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Division Intermedia Division Intermedia — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Deportivo Santani 26 16 3 7 51
2 General Caballero 26 15 5 6 50
3 12 de Junio VH 26 14 7 5 49
4 Benjamín Aceval 26 12 6 8 42
5 SOL DE America 26 9 13 4 40
6 Sportivo Carapeguá 27 11 6 10 39
7 Paraguari AC 27 11 5 11 38
8 Independiente F.b.c. 26 9 10 7 37
9 Atlético Tembetary 27 10 6 11 36
10 Resistencia 27 9 8 10 35
11 Fernando De La Mora 26 9 7 10 34
12 Deportivo Capiata 27 6 11 10 29
13 3 de Noviembre 27 6 8 13 26
14 Guairena FC 26 6 7 13 25
15 Tacuary 27 4 12 11 24
16 Encarnación 27 6 4 17 22
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 General Caballero 26 52 33 +19 50
2 Deportivo Santani 26 45 25 +20 51
3 Benjamín Aceval 26 40 32 +8 42
4 Atlético Tembetary 27 39 42 -3 36
5 Independiente F.b.c. 26 37 33 +4 37
6 Paraguari AC 27 36 35 +1 38
7 12 de Junio VH 26 35 26 +9 49
8 3 de Noviembre 27 33 40 -7 26
9 SOL DE America 26 32 24 +8 40
10 Sportivo Carapeguá 27 32 39 -7 39
11 Resistencia 27 31 32 -1 35
12 Deportivo Capiata 27 31 37 -6 29
13 Fernando De La Mora 26 30 35 -5 34
14 Tacuary 27 30 43 -13 24
15 Encarnación 27 25 39 -14 22
16 Guairena FC 26 22 35 -13 25
Division Intermedia Paraguay. Division Intermedia Predictions