Statistics / Football / Paraguay. Division Intermedia / Tacuary vs Benjamín Aceval

Tacuary vs Benjamín Aceval Statistics & Analysis

Tacuary Tacuary
Sep 26, 2026 - 13:00
2 1.29
1 1.31
xG Accuracy: 76%
Benjamín Aceval Benjamín Aceval
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Benjamín Aceval Tacuary ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 01:26 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10091579

Closing Odds 1.99
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Tacuary win · Tacuary 2–1 Benjamín Aceval
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Tacuary (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 8.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Tacuary (1X2) 34.7 29.3 +5.5
Draw (1X2) 29.7 25.6 +4.1
Benjamín Aceval (1X2) 35.6 45.1 -9.6
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 57.1 -8.9
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 42.9 +8.9
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 42.9%. The difference — about 8.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Tacuary (1X2) 3.07 3.07 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.51 3.51 0.0
Benjamín Aceval (1X2) 1.99 1.99 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.62 1.62 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.16 2.16 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Division Intermedia
  • Fixture: Tacuary vs Benjamín Aceval
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-26 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
  • xG (showing): Tacuary 1.29 — Benjamín Aceval 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 43.1% · Probability edge: +8.7 pts · Est. EV: +14.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Division Intermedia Division Intermedia — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Deportivo Santani 26 16 3 7 51
2 General Caballero 26 15 5 6 50
3 12 de Junio VH 26 14 7 5 49
4 Benjamín Aceval 26 12 6 8 42
5 SOL DE America 26 9 13 4 40
6 Sportivo Carapeguá 26 11 5 10 38
7 Independiente F.b.c. 26 9 10 7 37
8 Paraguari AC 26 10 5 11 35
9 Fernando De La Mora 26 9 7 10 34
10 Atlético Tembetary 26 9 6 11 33
11 Resistencia 26 8 8 10 32
12 Deportivo Capiata 26 6 10 10 28
13 3 de Noviembre 26 6 8 12 26
14 Guairena FC 26 6 7 13 25
15 Tacuary 26 4 12 10 24
16 Encarnación 26 6 4 16 22
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 General Caballero 26 52 33 +19 50
2 Deportivo Santani 26 45 25 +20 51
3 Benjamín Aceval 26 40 32 +8 42
4 Independiente F.b.c. 26 37 33 +4 37
5 Atlético Tembetary 26 36 40 -4 33
6 12 de Junio VH 26 35 26 +9 49
7 Paraguari AC 26 35 35 0 35
8 3 de Noviembre 26 33 39 -6 26
9 SOL DE America 26 32 24 +8 40
10 Sportivo Carapeguá 26 31 38 -7 38
11 Fernando De La Mora 26 30 35 -5 34
12 Deportivo Capiata 26 30 36 -6 28
13 Resistencia 26 28 32 -4 32
14 Tacuary 26 28 40 -12 24
15 Encarnación 26 25 36 -11 22
16 Guairena FC 26 22 35 -13 25
Division Intermedia Paraguay. Division Intermedia Predictions