General Caballero vs 3 de Noviembre Statistics & Analysis

General Caballero

Sep 25, 2026 - 21:30

1 1.32

3 1.28

xG Accuracy: 57%

3 de Noviembre

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 General Caballero 3 de Noviembre ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 02:00 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10103372

Closing Odds 1.65

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result 3 de Noviembre win · General Caballero 1–3 3 de Noviembre

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), 3 de Noviembre (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on 3 de Noviembre (1X2) by about 12.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
General Caballero (1X2)	36.1	53.5	-17.4
Draw (1X2)	29.7	25.2	+4.5
3 de Noviembre (1X2)	34.2	21.4	+12.9
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	51.1	-2.9
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	48.9	+2.9

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 34.2% on 3 de Noviembre (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 21.4%. The difference — about 12.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
General Caballero (1X2)	1.65	1.65
Draw (1X2)	3.5	3.5
3 de Noviembre (1X2)	4.13	4.13
Over 2.5 goals	1.81	1.81
Under 2.5 goals	1.89	1.89

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Division Intermedia
Fixture: General Caballero vs 3 de Noviembre
Kickoff: 2026-09-25 21:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
xG (showing): General Caballero 1.32 — 3 de Noviembre 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Division Intermedia — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Deportivo Santani	26	16	3	7	51
2	General Caballero	26	15	5	6	50
3	12 de Junio VH	26	14	7	5	49
4	Benjamín Aceval	26	12	6	8	42
5	SOL DE America	26	9	13	4	40
6	Sportivo Carapeguá	26	11	5	10	38
7	Independiente F.b.c.	26	9	10	7	37
8	Paraguari AC	25	10	5	10	35
9	Resistencia	26	8	8	10	32
10	Fernando De La Mora	25	8	7	10	31
11	Atlético Tembetary	25	8	6	11	30
12	Deportivo Capiata	26	6	10	10	28
13	3 de Noviembre	26	6	8	12	26
14	Guairena FC	25	6	7	12	25
15	Tacuary	26	4	12	10	24
16	Encarnación	26	6	4	16	22

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	General Caballero	26	52	33	+19	50
2	Deportivo Santani	26	45	25	+20	51
3	Benjamín Aceval	26	40	32	+8	42
4	Independiente F.b.c.	26	37	33	+4	37
5	12 de Junio VH	26	35	26	+9	49
6	Paraguari AC	25	34	33	+1	35
7	Atlético Tembetary	25	34	39	-5	30
8	3 de Noviembre	26	33	39	-6	26
9	SOL DE America	26	32	24	+8	40
10	Sportivo Carapeguá	26	31	38	-7	38
11	Deportivo Capiata	26	30	36	-6	28
12	Resistencia	26	28	32	-4	32
13	Fernando De La Mora	25	28	35	-7	31
14	Tacuary	26	28	40	-12	24
15	Encarnación	26	25	36	-11	22
16	Guairena FC	25	22	33	-11	25