Chippenham Town vs Yate Town Statistics & Analysis

Chippenham Town

Sep 22, 2026 - 18:45

2 1.33

1 1.27

xG Accuracy: 85%

Yate Town

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Chippenham Town Chippenham Town ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 01:44 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10097179

Closing Odds 3.72

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Chippenham Town win · Chippenham Town 2–1 Yate Town

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 3.8 percentage points on Chippenham Town (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE5.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 9.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Chippenham Town (1X2)	36.6	41.3	-4.7
Draw (1X2)	29.6	24.2	+5.4
Yate Town (1X2)	33.8	34.5	-0.7
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	58.0	-9.8
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	42.0	+9.8

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 42.0%. The difference — about 9.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Bet365 → Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Early and closing snapshots used different bookmakers — interpret movement with care.

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE5)	Implied Δ (pp)
Chippenham Town (1X2)	2.4	2.18	+3.8
Draw (1X2)	3.6	3.72	-0.8
Yate Town (1X2)	2.4	2.61	-3.0
Over 2.5 goals	1.62	1.6	-0.1
Under 2.5 goals	2.25	2.21	+0.1

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: FA Cup
Fixture: Chippenham Town vs Yate Town
Kickoff: 2026-09-22 18:45:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
xG (showing): Chippenham Town 1.33 — Yate Town 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 42.2% · Probability edge: +9.6 pts · Est. EV: +16.6%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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