Ironi Nesher vs Kiryat Haim Statistics & Analysis

Ironi Nesher

Oct 12, 2026 - 14:30

2 1.34

0 1.26

xG Accuracy: 59%

Kiryat Haim

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Ironi Nesher Ironi Nesher ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 07, 2026 · 02:35 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13667966

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Ironi Nesher win · Ironi Nesher 2–0 Kiryat Haim

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: State Cup
Fixture: Ironi Nesher vs Kiryat Haim
Kickoff: 2026-10-12 15:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
xG (showing): Ironi Nesher 1.34 — Kiryat Haim 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 15, 2026 (UTC)

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