Statistics / Football / World. COSAFA U20 Championship / South Africa U20 vs Eswatini U20

South Africa U20 vs Eswatini U20 Statistics & Analysis

South Africa U20 South Africa U20
Sep 23, 2026 - 10:00
2 1.53
0 1.07
xG Accuracy: 66%
Eswatini U20 Eswatini U20
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 South Africa U20 South Africa U20 ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 2-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 18, 2026 · 01:12 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-9332543

Closing Odds 1.11
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result South Africa U20 win · South Africa U20 2–0 Eswatini U20
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Eswatini U20 (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 18.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
South Africa U20 (1X2) 46.3 80.1 -33.8
Draw (1X2) 28.7 12.5 +16.3
Eswatini U20 (1X2) 24.9 7.4 +17.5
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 66.7 -18.5
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 33.3 +18.5
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 33.3%. The difference — about 18.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
South Africa U20 (1X2) 1.11 1.11 0.0
Draw (1X2) 7.14 7.14 0.0
Eswatini U20 (1X2) 12.01 12.01 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.36 1.36 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.72 2.72 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours South Africa U20; market prices South Africa U20 instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: South Africa U20 1.53 xG vs Eswatini U20 1.07 → South Africa U20 46.3%
  • Market: South Africa U20 ~80.1% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.0% · No 46.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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COSAFA U20 Championship COSAFA U20 Championship — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Namibia U20 3 3 0 0 9
2 Mozambique U20 3 2 0 1 6
3 Seychelles U20 3 1 0 2 3
4 Mauritius U20 3 0 0 3 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Mozambique U20 3 9 2 +7 6
2 Namibia U20 3 5 0 +5 9
3 Seychelles U20 3 5 10 -5 3
4 Mauritius U20 3 3 10 -7 0