Erchim vs Tuv Azarganuud Statistics & Analysis

Erchim

Oct 01, 2026 - 08:00

1 1.29

4 1.31

xG Accuracy: 44%

Tuv Azarganuud

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Tuv Azarganuud Tuv Azarganuud ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 25, 2026 · 01:26 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10755024

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Tuv Azarganuud win · Erchim 1–4 Tuv Azarganuud

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Premier League
Fixture: Erchim vs Tuv Azarganuud
Kickoff: 2026-10-01 11:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
xG (showing): Erchim 1.29 — Tuv Azarganuud 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Premier League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Tuv Azarganuud	4	4	0	0	12
2	Deren	4	3	1	0	10
3	Ulaanbaatar	3	2	1	0	7
4	Khovd	3	2	0	1	6
5	Erchim	4	2	0	2	6
6	Khovd Western	3	1	0	2	3
7	Amtat FC	4	1	0	3	3
8	Hunters	3	0	0	3	0
9	Ulaangom City	4	0	0	4	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Tuv Azarganuud	4	15	1	+14	12
2	Ulaanbaatar	3	14	3	+11	7
3	Deren	4	12	3	+9	10
4	Khovd	3	12	8	+4	6
5	Erchim	4	7	12	-5	6
6	Khovd Western	3	6	8	-2	3
7	Hunters	3	4	10	-6	0
8	Amtat FC	4	4	17	-13	3
9	Ulaangom City	4	2	14	-12	0