Tuv Azarganuud vs Deren Statistics & Analysis

Tuv Azarganuud

Oct 11, 2026 - 08:00

2 1.12

1 1.48

xG Accuracy: 69%

Deren

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Deren Tuv Azarganuud ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 2-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 00:59 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13186932

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Tuv Azarganuud win · Tuv Azarganuud 2–1 Deren

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Premier League
Fixture: Tuv Azarganuud vs Deren
Kickoff: 2026-10-11 08:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 27.1% · Draw 29.1% · Away 43.9%
xG (showing): Tuv Azarganuud 1.12 — Deren 1.48 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS No
Model: 46.4% · Implied: 20.9% · Probability edge: +25.5 pts · Est. EV: +143.6%
BTTS (model): Yes 53.6% · No 46.4%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Premier League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Tuv Azarganuud	6	6	0	0	18
2	Deren	6	4	2	0	14
3	Ulaanbaatar	5	4	1	0	13
4	Khovd	6	3	1	2	10
5	Hunters	6	3	0	3	9
6	Erchim	5	2	0	3	6
7	Khovd Western	6	1	0	5	3
8	Amtat FC	6	1	0	5	3
9	Ulaangom City	6	0	0	6	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Tuv Azarganuud	6	27	6	+21	18
2	Ulaanbaatar	5	26	3	+23	13
3	Khovd	6	23	15	+8	10
4	Deren	6	20	7	+13	14
5	Hunters	6	20	15	+5	9
6	Khovd Western	6	13	27	-14	3
7	Erchim	5	8	16	-8	6
8	Amtat FC	6	5	31	-26	3
9	Ulaangom City	6	4	26	-22	0