Tuv Azarganuud vs Khovd Western Statistics & Analysis

Tuv Azarganuud

Oct 04, 2026 - 05:00

8 1.28

4 1.32

xG Accuracy: 8%

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Khovd Western

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (12 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Khovd Western Tuv Azarganuud ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 8-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 00:50 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11657338

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Tuv Azarganuud win · Tuv Azarganuud 8–4 Khovd Western

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Premier League
Fixture: Tuv Azarganuud vs Khovd Western
Kickoff: 2026-10-04 05:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
xG (showing): Tuv Azarganuud 1.28 — Khovd Western 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 20.0% · Probability edge: +31.8 pts · Est. EV: +236.7%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: AI–Market Conflict - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 04, 2026 (UTC)

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Premier League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Tuv Azarganuud	5	5	0	0	15
2	Deren	5	4	1	0	13
3	Ulaanbaatar	4	3	1	0	10
4	Khovd	4	2	0	2	6
5	Erchim	5	2	0	3	6
6	Hunters	4	1	0	3	3
7	Khovd Western	4	1	0	3	3
8	Amtat FC	4	1	0	3	3
9	Ulaangom City	5	0	0	5	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Tuv Azarganuud	5	19	2	+17	15
2	Ulaanbaatar	4	18	3	+15	10
3	Deren	5	17	4	+13	13
4	Khovd	4	12	12	0	6
5	Hunters	4	8	12	-4	3
6	Erchim	5	8	16	-8	6
7	Khovd Western	4	7	13	-6	3
8	Amtat FC	4	4	17	-13	3
9	Ulaangom City	5	4	18	-14	0