Khovd Western vs Deren Statistics & Analysis

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Khovd Western

Oct 01, 2026 - 05:00

1 1.16

5 1.44

xG Accuracy: 36%

Deren

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Deren Deren ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 1-5 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 25, 2026 · 01:25 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10754867

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Deren win · Khovd Western 1–5 Deren

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Premier League
Fixture: Khovd Western vs Deren
Kickoff: 2026-10-01 08:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 28.8% · Draw 29.3% · Away 41.9%
xG (showing): Khovd Western 1.16 — Deren 1.44 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: AI–Market Conflict - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 04, 2026 (UTC)

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Premier League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Tuv Azarganuud	5	5	0	0	15
2	Deren	5	4	1	0	13
3	Ulaanbaatar	4	3	1	0	10
4	Khovd	4	2	0	2	6
5	Erchim	5	2	0	3	6
6	Hunters	4	1	0	3	3
7	Khovd Western	4	1	0	3	3
8	Amtat FC	4	1	0	3	3
9	Ulaangom City	5	0	0	5	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Tuv Azarganuud	5	19	2	+17	15
2	Ulaanbaatar	4	18	3	+15	10
3	Deren	5	17	4	+13	13
4	Khovd	4	12	12	0	6
5	Hunters	4	8	12	-4	3
6	Erchim	5	8	16	-8	6
7	Khovd Western	4	7	13	-6	3
8	Amtat FC	4	4	17	-13	3
9	Ulaangom City	5	4	18	-14	0