Statistics / Football / Egypt. League Cup / Ghazl El Mehalla vs Abu Qair Semad

Ghazl El Mehalla vs Abu Qair Semad Statistics & Analysis

Ghazl El Mehalla Ghazl El Mehalla
Oct 08, 2026 - 17:00
1 1.31
1 1.29
xG Accuracy: 85%
Abu Qair Semad Abu Qair Semad
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Ghazl El Mehalla Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 02, 2026 · 01:19 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-12430597

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Ghazl El Mehalla 1–1 Abu Qair Semad
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: League Cup
  • Fixture: Ghazl El Mehalla vs Abu Qair Semad
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-08 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
  • xG (showing): Ghazl El Mehalla 1.31 — Abu Qair Semad 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 34.3% · Probability edge: +13.9 pts · Est. EV: +42.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 09, 2026 (UTC)

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