Comerciantes vs Sport Huancayo 2 Statistics & Analysis

Comerciantes

Sep 25, 2026 - 20:15

0 1.42

1 1.18

xG Accuracy: 64%

⚽

Sport Huancayo 2

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Comerciantes Sport Huancayo 2 ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 19, 2026 · 01:52 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-9579456

Closing Odds 1.57

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Sport Huancayo 2 win · Comerciantes 0–1 Sport Huancayo 2

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Sport Huancayo 2 (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Sport Huancayo 2 (1X2) by about 12.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Comerciantes (1X2)	41.0	56.8	-15.8
Draw (1X2)	29.4	26.2	+3.2
Sport Huancayo 2 (1X2)	29.6	17.0	+12.7
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	45.4	+2.8
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	54.6	-2.8

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 29.6% on Sport Huancayo 2 (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 17.0%. The difference — about 12.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Comerciantes (1X2)	1.57	1.57
Draw (1X2)	3.4	3.4
Sport Huancayo 2 (1X2)	5.25	5.25
Over 2.5 goals	2.08	2.08
Under 2.5 goals	1.73	1.73

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Segunda División
Fixture: Comerciantes vs Sport Huancayo 2
Kickoff: 2026-09-25 20:15:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Away 29.6%
xG (showing): Comerciantes 1.42 — Sport Huancayo 2 1.18 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Segunda División — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Union Comercio	16	9	5	2	32
2	Carlos A. Mannucci	16	9	3	4	30
3	Deportivo Llacuabamba	16	8	4	4	28
4	Molinos El Pirata	16	7	4	5	25
5	U. San Martin	16	7	3	6	24
6	Deportiva Agropecuaria	15	5	6	4	21
7	Cesar Vallejo	15	5	4	6	19
8	Academia Cantolao	16	3	5	8	14
9	San Marcos	14	0	0	14	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	U. San Martin	16	26	17	+9	24
2	Molinos El Pirata	16	25	20	+5	25
3	Deportivo Llacuabamba	16	23	10	+13	28
4	Carlos A. Mannucci	16	22	12	+10	30
5	Union Comercio	16	19	5	+14	32
6	Academia Cantolao	16	19	30	-11	14
7	Deportiva Agropecuaria	15	14	12	+2	21
8	Cesar Vallejo	15	14	13	+1	19
9	San Marcos	14	1	44	-43	0