Statistics / Football / Brazil. Paulista - U20 / EC São Bernardo U20 vs São Paulo U20

EC São Bernardo U20 vs São Paulo U20 Statistics & Analysis

EC São Bernardo U20 EC São Bernardo U20
Sep 21, 2026 - 18:00
0 1.19
0 1.41
xG Accuracy: 49%
São Paulo U20 São Paulo U20
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 São Paulo U20 Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-0 0-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 18, 2026 · 00:52 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-9329204

Closing Odds 1.48
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · EC São Bernardo U20 0–0 São Paulo U20
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 1.03 percentage points on São Paulo U20 (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on EC São Bernardo U20 (1X2) by about 14.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
EC São Bernardo U20 (1X2) 30.1 16.0 +14.1
Draw (1X2) 29.4 23.2 +6.2
São Paulo U20 (1X2) 40.5 60.8 -20.3
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 50.5 -2.3
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 49.5 +2.3
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 30.1% on EC São Bernardo U20 (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 16.0%. The difference — about 14.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Bet365 → Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Early and closing snapshots used different bookmakers — interpret movement with care.
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
EC São Bernardo U20 (1X2) 5.5 5.63 -0.3
Draw (1X2) 3.75 3.88 -0.7
São Paulo U20 (1X2) 1.5 1.48 +1.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.9 1.85 +0.5
Under 2.5 goals 1.9 1.89 -0.5

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Paulista - U20
  • Fixture: EC São Bernardo U20 vs São Paulo U20
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-21 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 30.1% · Draw 29.4% · Away 40.5%
  • xG (showing): EC São Bernardo U20 1.19 — São Paulo U20 1.41 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Paulista - U20 Paulista - U20 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Juventus U20 1 1 0 0 3
2 Santos U20 1 1 0 0 3
3 Ferroviária U20 1 1 0 0 3
4 Portuguesa Santista U20 1 1 0 0 3
5 Portuguesa U20 1 1 0 0 3
6 Corinthians U20 1 1 0 0 3
7 União Suzano U20 1 1 0 0 3
8 Ponte Preta U20 1 0 0 1 0
9 Jabaquara U20 1 0 0 1 0
10 São Bento U20 1 0 0 1 0
11 Mirassol U20 1 0 0 1 0
12 Itapirense U20 1 0 0 1 0
13 América-SP U20 1 0 0 1 0
14 Sertãozinho U20 1 0 0 1 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Juventus U20 1 3 0 +3 3
2 Santos U20 1 3 0 +3 3
3 Ferroviária U20 1 2 0 +2 3
4 Portuguesa Santista U20 1 2 1 +1 3
5 Portuguesa U20 1 2 1 +1 3
6 Corinthians U20 1 1 0 +1 3
7 União Suzano U20 1 1 0 +1 3
8 Ponte Preta U20 1 1 2 -1 0
9 Jabaquara U20 1 1 2 -1 0
10 São Bento U20 1 0 1 -1 0
11 Mirassol U20 1 0 1 -1 0
12 Itapirense U20 1 0 2 -2 0
13 América-SP U20 1 0 3 -3 0
14 Sertãozinho U20 1 0 3 -3 0