Arambagh vs Bashundhara Kings Statistics & Analysis

Arambagh

Sep 19, 2026 - 09:00

1 1.23

1 1.37

xG Accuracy: 85%

Bashundhara Kings

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Bashundhara Kings Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 18, 2026 · 01:39 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-9337294

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Arambagh 1–1 Bashundhara Kings

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Premier League
Fixture: Arambagh vs Bashundhara Kings
Kickoff: 2026-09-19 09:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.5%
xG (showing): Arambagh 1.23 — Bashundhara Kings 1.37 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Premier League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Bashundhara Kings	18	12	5	1	41
2	Abahani	18	11	4	3	37
3	Fortis	18	10	5	3	35
4	Bangladesh Police	18	6	9	3	27
5	Mohammedan Dhaka	18	6	5	7	23
6	Rahmatgonj MFS	18	6	5	7	23
7	Brothers Union	18	4	5	9	17
8	PWD Sports Club	18	4	5	9	17
9	Arambagh	18	3	5	10	14
10	Fakirerpool	18	2	4	12	10

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Bashundhara Kings	18	42	18	+24	41
2	Abahani	18	37	15	+22	37
3	Fortis	18	31	13	+18	35
4	Mohammedan Dhaka	18	27	20	+7	23
5	Rahmatgonj MFS	18	21	25	-4	23
6	Bangladesh Police	18	19	15	+4	27
7	Brothers Union	18	18	29	-11	17
8	PWD Sports Club	18	15	28	-13	17
9	Fakirerpool	18	13	44	-31	10
10	Arambagh	18	12	28	-16	14