Slovakia U19 vs Poland U19 Statistics & Analysis

Slovakia U19

Sep 28, 2026 - 15:00

1 1.18

2 1.42

xG Accuracy: 81%

Poland U19

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Poland U19 Poland U19 ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 22, 2026 · 02:00 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10250389

Closing Odds 1.67

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Poland U19 win · Slovakia U19 1–2 Poland U19

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 1.74 percentage points on Poland U19 (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Slovakia U19 (1X2) by about 9.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Slovakia U19 (1X2)	29.6	19.7	+9.9
Draw (1X2)	29.4	25.3	+4.0
Poland U19 (1X2)	41.0	54.9	-14.0
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	50.3	-2.1
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	49.7	+2.1

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 29.6% on Slovakia U19 (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 19.7%. The difference — about 9.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)	Implied Δ (pp)
Slovakia U19 (1X2)	4.38	4.65	-1.2
Draw (1X2)	3.53	3.62	-0.6
Poland U19 (1X2)	1.72	1.67	+1.7
Over 2.5 goals	1.91	1.88	+0.7
Under 2.5 goals	1.88	1.9	-0.7

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Friendlies
Fixture: Slovakia U19 vs Poland U19
Kickoff: 2026-09-28 15:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 29.6% · Draw 29.4% · Away 41.0%
xG (showing): Slovakia U19 1.18 — Poland U19 1.42 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 04, 2026 (UTC)

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