Sint Maarten vs St. Vincent / Grenadines Statistics & Analysis

Sint Maarten

Oct 03, 2026 - 21:00

2 1.21

4 1.39

xG Accuracy: 39%

St. Vincent / Grenadines

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 St. Vincent / Grenadines St. Vincent / Grenadines ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 03:57 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11262549

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result St. Vincent / Grenadines win · Sint Maarten 2–4 St. Vincent / Grenadines

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: CONCACAF Nations League
Fixture: Sint Maarten vs St. Vincent / Grenadines
Kickoff: 2026-10-03 21:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 31.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 39.5%
xG (showing): Sint Maarten 1.21 — St. Vincent / Grenadines 1.39 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 08, 2026 (UTC)

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