Millonarios W vs Santa Fe W Statistics & Analysis

Millonarios W

Sep 20, 2026 - 23:30

1 1.26

2 1.34

xG Accuracy: 78%

Santa Fe W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Santa Fe W Santa Fe W ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 17, 2026 · 01:11 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-9161882

Closing Odds 1.85

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Santa Fe W win · Millonarios W 1–2 Santa Fe W

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Santa Fe W (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Santa Fe W (1X2) by about 14.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Millonarios W (1X2)	33.4	48.0	-14.6
Draw (1X2)	29.6	29.3	+0.3
Santa Fe W (1X2)	37.0	22.7	+14.3
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	40.6	+7.6
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	59.4	-7.6

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 37.0% on Santa Fe W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 22.7%. The difference — about 14.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Millonarios W (1X2)	1.85	1.85
Draw (1X2)	3.03	3.03
Santa Fe W (1X2)	3.91	3.91
Over 2.5 goals	2.27	2.27
Under 2.5 goals	1.55	1.55

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Liga Femenina
Fixture: Millonarios W vs Santa Fe W
Kickoff: 2026-09-20 23:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.0%
xG (showing): Millonarios W 1.26 — Santa Fe W 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
Model: 54.5% · Implied: 45.8% · Probability edge: +8.7 pts · Est. EV: +10.6%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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