Humble Lions vs Waterhouse Statistics & Analysis

Humble Lions

Sep 21, 2026 - 22:05

0 1.17

5 1.43

xG Accuracy: 27%

Waterhouse

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Waterhouse Waterhouse ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 0-5 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 17, 2026 · 00:52 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-9158754

Closing Odds 1.64

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Waterhouse win · Humble Lions 0–5 Waterhouse

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Humble Lions (1X2), Draw (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Humble Lions (1X2) by about 10.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Humble Lions (1X2)	29.3	19.2	+10.0
Draw (1X2)	29.4	25.6	+3.8
Waterhouse (1X2)	41.4	55.2	-13.8
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	48.5	-0.3
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	51.5	+0.3

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 29.3% on Humble Lions (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 19.2%. The difference — about 10.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Humble Lions (1X2)	4.7	4.7
Draw (1X2)	3.54	3.54
Waterhouse (1X2)	1.64	1.64
Over 2.5 goals	1.93	1.93
Under 2.5 goals	1.82	1.82

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Premier League
Fixture: Humble Lions vs Waterhouse
Kickoff: 2026-09-21 22:05:00
1X2 (model): Home 29.3% · Draw 29.4% · Away 41.4%
xG (showing): Humble Lions 1.17 — Waterhouse 1.43 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.0%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Premier League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Tru-Juice	3	2	1	0	7
2	Montego Bay United	3	2	1	0	7
3	Waterhouse	2	2	0	0	6
4	Cavalier	2	2	0	0	6
5	Racing United	3	2	0	1	6
6	Tivoli Gardens	3	1	2	0	5
7	Chapelton	3	1	1	1	4
8	Portmore United	1	1	0	0	3
9	Arnett Gardens	3	1	0	2	3
10	Molynes United	3	1	0	2	3
11	Mount Pleasant Academy	3	1	0	2	3
12	Treasure Beach	3	0	1	2	1
13	Dunbeholden	3	0	0	3	0
14	Humble Lions	3	0	0	3	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Waterhouse	2	7	0	+7	6
2	Arnett Gardens	3	7	6	+1	3
3	Tru-Juice	3	5	0	+5	7
4	Tivoli Gardens	3	5	2	+3	5
5	Cavalier	2	5	3	+2	6
6	Portmore United	1	4	1	+3	3
7	Racing United	3	4	3	+1	6
8	Molynes United	3	4	5	-1	3
9	Montego Bay United	3	3	0	+3	7
10	Chapelton	3	3	4	-1	4
11	Treasure Beach	3	3	6	-3	1
12	Mount Pleasant Academy	3	2	5	-3	3
13	Dunbeholden	3	1	7	-6	0
14	Humble Lions	3	1	12	-11	0