Aucas vs Macara Statistics & Analysis

Aucas

Sep 19, 2026 - 00:30

1 1.23

2 1.01

xG Accuracy: 72%

Macara

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Aucas Macara ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 0-0, 2-1 1-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 17, 2026 · 01:05 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-9160403

Closing Odds 1.99

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Macara win · Aucas 1–2 Macara

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Macara (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Macara (1X2) by about 4.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Aucas (1X2)	39.5	47.8	-8.3
Draw (1X2)	32.0	28.1	+4.0
Macara (1X2)	28.5	24.1	+4.4
Over 2.5 goals	38.8	41.4	-2.6
Under 2.5 goals	61.2	58.6	+2.6

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 28.5% on Macara (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 24.1%. The difference — about 4.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Aucas (1X2)	1.99	1.99
Draw (1X2)	3.39	3.39
Macara (1X2)	3.95	3.95
Over 2.5 goals	2.31	2.31
Under 2.5 goals	1.63	1.63

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Liga Pro
Fixture: Aucas vs Macara
Kickoff: 2026-09-19 00:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 39.5% · Draw 32.0% · Away 28.5%
xG (showing): Aucas 1.23 — Macara 1.01 (total xG ≈ 2.24)
Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.0%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 61.2% · Over 2.5 38.8%); BTTS No (Yes 46.7% · No 53.3%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 46.7% · No 53.3%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (13.2%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 27, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga Pro — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Independiente del Valle	30	24	2	4	74
2	Universidad Catolica	30	14	9	7	51
3	Macara	30	15	6	9	51
4	Aucas	30	14	8	8	50
5	LDU de Quito	30	13	7	10	46
6	Barcelona SC	30	11	11	8	44
7	Libertad	30	11	8	11	41
8	Leones del Norte	30	10	9	11	39
9	Guayaquil City FC	30	10	9	11	39
10	Emelec	30	10	9	11	39
11	Mushuc Runa SC	30	9	11	10	38
12	Deportivo Cuenca	30	10	6	14	36
13	Orense SC	30	9	6	15	33
14	Tecnico Universitario	30	10	2	18	32
15	Delfin SC	30	7	7	16	28
16	Manta FC	30	5	6	19	21

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Independiente del Valle	30	73	33	+40	74
2	Universidad Catolica	30	51	27	+24	51
3	Macara	30	41	33	+8	51
4	Orense SC	30	36	47	-11	33
5	Mushuc Runa SC	30	35	38	-3	38
6	Aucas	30	33	28	+5	50
7	Libertad	30	33	34	-1	41
8	Guayaquil City FC	30	33	36	-3	39
9	Barcelona SC	30	32	25	+7	44
10	LDU de Quito	30	31	24	+7	46
11	Leones del Norte	30	31	32	-1	39
12	Tecnico Universitario	30	28	42	-14	32
13	Emelec	30	25	34	-9	39
14	Deportivo Cuenca	30	25	37	-12	36
15	Delfin SC	30	19	31	-12	28
16	Manta FC	30	17	42	-25	21

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Emelec	30	3.0	0.8	+2.2	39
2	Universidad Catolica	30	3.5	1.6	+1.9	51
3	Aucas	30	2.9	1.6	+1.3	50
4	LDU de Quito	30	4.2	3.1	+1.1	46
5	Macara	30	3.0	2.0	+1.0	51
6	Leones del Norte	30	2.6	1.9	+0.7	39
7	Mushuc Runa SC	30	2.3	1.7	+0.6	38
8	Delfin SC	30	1.7	1.4	+0.3	28
9	Guayaquil City FC	30	1.4	1.7	-0.3	39
10	Barcelona SC	30	3.4	4.1	-0.7	44
11	Manta FC	30	0.5	1.3	-0.8	21
12	Tecnico Universitario	30	0.6	1.7	-1.1	32
13	Libertad	30	0.3	2.0	-1.7	41
14	Deportivo Cuenca	30	3.3	5.3	-2.0	36
15	Orense SC	30	0.6	2.9	-2.3	33
16	Independiente del Valle	30	—	—	—	74