Statistics / Football / Brazil. Paranaense - 3 / AA Iguaçu vs PSTC Procopense

AA Iguaçu vs PSTC Procopense Statistics & Analysis

AA Iguaçu AA Iguaçu
Sep 20, 2026 - 18:30
1 1.32
2 1.28
xG Accuracy: 75%
PSTC Procopense PSTC Procopense
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 AA Iguaçu PSTC Procopense ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 16, 2026 · 01:13 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8977079

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result PSTC Procopense win · AA Iguaçu 1–2 PSTC Procopense
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Paranaense - 3
  • Fixture: AA Iguaçu vs PSTC Procopense
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-20 18:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): AA Iguaçu 1.32 — PSTC Procopense 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Paranaense - 3 Paranaense - 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 AA Iguaçu 6 4 1 1 13
2 Hope Internacional 6 3 2 1 11
3 PSTC Procopense 6 3 1 2 10
4 Cambé 6 3 1 2 10
5 City London 6 3 0 3 9
6 Oeste Brasil 4 2 1 1 7
7 União PR 4 2 1 1 7
8 Iraty 6 2 1 3 7
9 Portuguesa Londrinense 6 2 0 4 6
9 Sport Club PR 2 0 1 1 1
10 Samas 6 1 0 5 3
11 Campo Mourão 4 0 2 2 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Hope Internacional 6 8 4 +4 11
2 Oeste Brasil 4 8 5 +3 7
3 União PR 4 7 6 +1 7
4 Iraty 6 7 9 -2 7
5 AA Iguaçu 6 6 2 +4 13
6 City London 6 6 3 +3 9
7 PSTC Procopense 6 6 5 +1 10
8 Portuguesa Londrinense 6 4 8 -4 6
9 Samas 6 4 10 -6 3
10 Cambé 6 3 3 0 10
11 Campo Mourão 4 2 6 -4 2
12 Sport Club PR 2 1 3 -2 1