Santa Fe W vs Millonarios W Statistics & Analysis

Santa Fe W

Sep 18, 2026 - 00:00

2 1.38

2 1.22

xG Accuracy: 68%

Millonarios W

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Santa Fe W Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 16, 2026 · 01:51 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8983159

Closing Odds 2.65

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Draw · Santa Fe W 2–2 Millonarios W

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Santa Fe W (1X2), Millonarios W (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 10.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Santa Fe W (1X2)	39.0	36.5	+2.5
Draw (1X2)	29.5	33.6	-4.0
Millonarios W (1X2)	31.5	30.0	+1.5
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	37.3	+10.9
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	62.7	-10.9

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 37.3%. The difference — about 10.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Santa Fe W (1X2)	2.44	2.44
Draw (1X2)	2.65	2.65
Millonarios W (1X2)	2.97	2.97
Over 2.5 goals	2.45	2.45
Under 2.5 goals	1.46	1.46

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Liga Femenina
Fixture: Santa Fe W vs Millonarios W
Kickoff: 2026-09-18 00:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.5%
xG (showing): Santa Fe W 1.38 — Millonarios W 1.22 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
Model: 48.2% · Implied: 38.1% · Probability edge: +10.1 pts · Est. EV: +20.5%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

Explore More Predictions Content

Get Premium Predictions for Santa Fe W & Millonarios W!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now

Back to Statistics