Karviná vs Stal Rzeszów Statistics & Analysis

Karviná

Oct 02, 2026 - 14:00

1 1.41

1 1.19

xG Accuracy: 85%

Stal Rzeszów

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Karviná Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 26, 2026 · 01:18 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10970419

Closing Odds 1.8

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Draw · Karviná 1–1 Stal Rzeszów

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 3.18 percentage points on Karviná (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 4.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Karviná (1X2)	41.4	49.4	-7.9
Draw (1X2)	27.4	23.4	+4.1
Stal Rzeszów (1X2)	31.1	27.3	+3.9

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 27.4% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 23.4%. The difference — about 4.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)	Implied Δ (pp)
Karviná (1X2)	1.69	1.8	-3.2
Draw (1X2)	3.92	3.8	+0.7
Stal Rzeszów (1X2)	3.58	3.26	+2.5

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Friendlies Clubs
Fixture: Karviná vs Stal Rzeszów
Kickoff: 2026-10-02 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.4% · Draw 27.4% · Away 31.1%
xG (showing): Karviná 1.41 — Stal Rzeszów 1.19 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 32.0% · Probability edge: +19.8 pts · Est. EV: +65.8%
BTTS (model): Yes 53.2% · No 46.8%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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