Statistics / Football / World. Asian Games Women / Vietnam W vs Thailand W

Vietnam W vs Thailand W Statistics & Analysis

Vietnam W Vietnam W
Sep 21, 2026 - 10:30
0 1.32
0 1.28
xG Accuracy: 49%
Thailand W Thailand W
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Vietnam W Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 15, 2026 · 02:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8835364

Closing Odds 2.08
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Vietnam W 0–0 Thailand W
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Thailand W (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Thailand W (1X2) by about 5.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Vietnam W (1X2) 36.1 43.2 -7.1
Draw (1X2) 29.7 27.8 +1.9
Thailand W (1X2) 34.2 29.0 +5.2
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 51.5 -3.3
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 48.5 +3.3
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 34.2% on Thailand W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 29.0%. The difference — about 5.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Vietnam W (1X2) 2.08 2.08 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.24 3.24 0.0
Thailand W (1X2) 3.1 3.1 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.82 1.82 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.93 1.93 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Asian Games Women
  • Fixture: Vietnam W vs Thailand W
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-21 10:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Vietnam W 1.32 — Thailand W 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Asian Games Women Asian Games Women — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Japan W 3 3 0 0 9
2 Chinese Taipei W 3 2 0 1 6
3 Vietnam W 3 0 1 2 1
4 Thailand W 3 0 1 2 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Japan W 3 20 0 +20 9
2 Chinese Taipei W 3 3 5 -2 6
3 Vietnam W 3 1 10 -9 1
4 Thailand W 3 0 9 -9 1