Statistics / Football / World. Asian Games Women / China W vs Philippines W

China W vs Philippines W Statistics & Analysis

China W China W
Sep 21, 2026 - 07:00
5 1.32
1 1.28
xG Accuracy: 34%
Philippines W Philippines W
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 China W China W ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 5-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 15, 2026 · 02:20 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8835112

Closing Odds 1.08
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result China W win · China W 5–1 Philippines W
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Philippines W (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Philippines W (1X2) by about 28.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
China W (1X2) 36.1 82.7 -46.6
Draw (1X2) 29.7 11.5 +18.1
Philippines W (1X2) 34.2 5.8 +28.5
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 66.9 -18.7
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 33.1 +18.7
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 34.2% on Philippines W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 5.8%. The difference — about 28.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
China W (1X2) 1.08 1.08 0.0
Draw (1X2) 7.75 7.75 0.0
Philippines W (1X2) 15.52 15.52 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.35 1.35 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.73 2.73 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours China W; market prices China W instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: China W 1.32 xG vs Philippines W 1.28 → China W 36.1%
  • Market: China W ~82.7% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Asian Games Women Asian Games Women — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Japan W 3 3 0 0 9
2 Chinese Taipei W 3 2 0 1 6
3 Vietnam W 3 0 1 2 1
4 Thailand W 3 0 1 2 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Japan W 3 20 0 +20 9
2 Chinese Taipei W 3 3 5 -2 6
3 Vietnam W 3 1 10 -9 1
4 Thailand W 3 0 9 -9 1