Statistics / Football / Australia. Western Australia NPL / Armadale vs UWA Nedlands

Armadale vs UWA Nedlands Statistics & Analysis

Armadale Armadale
Sep 19, 2026 - 07:30
3 1.24
0 1.36
xG Accuracy: 42%
UWA Nedlands UWA Nedlands
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 UWA Nedlands Armadale ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 15, 2026 · 00:21 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8818890

Closing Odds 1.93
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Armadale win · Armadale 3–0 UWA Nedlands
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), UWA Nedlands (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 14.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Armadale (1X2) 32.4 47.4 -15.0
Draw (1X2) 29.6 24.3 +5.3
UWA Nedlands (1X2) 38.0 28.3 +9.7
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 62.8 -14.6
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 37.2 +14.6
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 37.2%. The difference — about 14.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Armadale (1X2) 1.93 1.93 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.77 3.77 0.0
UWA Nedlands (1X2) 3.23 3.23 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.48 1.48 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.5 2.5 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Western Australia NPL
  • Fixture: Armadale vs UWA Nedlands
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-19 07:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.0%
  • xG (showing): Armadale 1.24 — UWA Nedlands 1.36 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 38.1% · Probability edge: +13.7 pts · Est. EV: +31.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Western Australia NPL Western Australia NPL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Bayswater City 22 14 5 3 47
2 Olympic Kingsway 22 12 5 5 41
3 Perth RedStar 22 12 5 5 41
4 Perth 22 10 8 4 38
5 Fremantle City 22 9 8 5 35
6 Stirling Lions 22 9 3 10 30
7 Western Knights 22 6 7 9 25
8 Sorrento 22 7 3 12 24
9 Dianella White Eagle 22 6 5 11 23
10 Perth Glory II 22 5 6 11 21
11 Armadale 22 5 6 11 21
12 Balcatta 22 4 5 13 17
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Bayswater City 22 60 27 +33 47
2 Perth 22 53 41 +12 38
3 Olympic Kingsway 22 44 29 +15 41
4 Fremantle City 22 44 34 +10 35
5 Perth Glory II 22 41 45 -4 21
6 Stirling Lions 22 40 38 +2 30
7 Armadale 22 40 56 -16 21
8 Western Knights 22 38 40 -2 25
9 Perth RedStar 22 35 29 +6 41
10 Dianella White Eagle 22 32 43 -11 23
11 Balcatta 22 29 54 -25 17
12 Sorrento 22 22 42 -20 24