Korea DPR U20 vs Japan U20 W Statistics & Analysis

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Validation Report

Market intelligence

AI match briefing

Model Performance

Market briefing

Model vs. closing implied

Closing-window line move

AI Match Summary

Historical Recommendation

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Last Updated

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World Cup - U20 - Women — Standings

Korea DPR U20

Sep 17, 2026 - 16:30

2 1.33

0 1.27

xG Accuracy: 59%

Japan U20 W

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Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Korea DPR U20 Korea DPR U20 ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 15, 2026 · 01:45 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8831557

Closing Odds 1.52

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Korea DPR U20 win · Korea DPR U20 2–0 Japan U20 W

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Japan U20 W (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Japan U20 W (1X2) by about 17.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Korea DPR U20 (1X2)	36.6	58.9	-22.2
Draw (1X2)	29.6	24.9	+4.7
Japan U20 W (1X2)	33.8	16.2	+17.5
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	42.6	+5.6
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	57.4	-5.6

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 33.8% on Japan U20 W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 16.2%. The difference — about 17.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Korea DPR U20 (1X2)	1.52	1.52
Draw (1X2)	3.59	3.59
Japan U20 W (1X2)	5.51	5.51
Over 2.5 goals	2.17	2.17
Under 2.5 goals	1.61	1.61

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: World Cup - U20 - Women
Fixture: Korea DPR U20 vs Japan U20 W
Kickoff: 2026-09-17 16:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
xG (showing): Korea DPR U20 1.33 — Japan U20 W 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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