Qatar U23 vs Korea Republic U23 Statistics & Analysis

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Validation Report

AI match briefing

Model Performance

AI Match Summary

Historical Recommendation

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Last Updated

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Asian Games — Standings

Qatar U23

Sep 15, 2026 - 10:30

1 1.18

4 1.42

xG Accuracy: 47%

Korea Republic U23

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Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Korea Republic U23 Korea Republic U23 ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 1-4 ✖ Incorrect

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:37 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8672506

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Korea Republic U23 win · Qatar U23 1–4 Korea Republic U23

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Asian Games
Fixture: Qatar U23 vs Korea Republic U23
Kickoff: 2026-09-15 10:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 29.6% · Draw 29.4% · Away 41.0%
xG (showing): Qatar U23 1.18 — Korea Republic U23 1.42 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Decision: AI–Market Conflict - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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