France U20 W vs Canada U20 W Statistics & Analysis

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Validation Report

Market intelligence

AI match briefing

Model Performance

Market briefing

Model vs. closing implied

Closing-window line move

AI Match Summary

Historical Recommendation

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Last Updated

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World Cup - U20 - Women — Standings

France U20 W

Sep 17, 2026 - 13:00

1 1.28

3 1.32

xG Accuracy: 58%

Canada U20 W

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Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Canada U20 W Canada U20 W ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 07:27 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8733836

Closing Odds 2.38

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Canada U20 W win · France U20 W 1–3 Canada U20 W

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Canada U20 W (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 2.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
France U20 W (1X2)	34.2	38.5	-4.3
Draw (1X2)	29.7	26.9	+2.8
Canada U20 W (1X2)	36.1	34.6	+1.5
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	50.9	-2.7
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	49.1	+2.7

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 29.7% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 26.9%. The difference — about 2.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
France U20 W (1X2)	2.38	2.38
Draw (1X2)	3.41	3.41
Canada U20 W (1X2)	2.65	2.65
Over 2.5 goals	1.86	1.86
Under 2.5 goals	1.93	1.93

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: World Cup - U20 - Women
Fixture: France U20 W vs Canada U20 W
Kickoff: 2026-09-17 13:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
xG (showing): France U20 W 1.28 — Canada U20 W 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.0%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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