Botafogo U20 vs Bahia U20 Statistics & Analysis

Botafogo U20

Oct 08, 2026 - 23:00

1 1.23

0 1.37

xG Accuracy: 64%

Bahia U20

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Bahia U20 Botafogo U20 ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 02, 2026 · 01:25 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-12431967

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Botafogo U20 win · Botafogo U20 1–0 Bahia U20

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Copa do Brasil U20
Fixture: Botafogo U20 vs Bahia U20
Kickoff: 2026-10-08 23:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.5%
xG (showing): Botafogo U20 1.23 — Bahia U20 1.37 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 44.3% · Probability edge: +7.5 pts · Est. EV: +11.4%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 17, 2026 (UTC)

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