Statistics / Football / Italy. Coppa Italia Serie D / Este vs Caldiero Terme

Este vs Caldiero Terme Statistics & Analysis

Este Este
Oct 07, 2026 - 15:00
0 1.36
2 1.24
xG Accuracy: 56%
Caldiero Terme Caldiero Terme
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Este Caldiero Terme ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 01, 2026 · 01:47 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-12184788

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Caldiero Terme win · Este 0–2 Caldiero Terme
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Coppa Italia Serie D
  • Fixture: Este vs Caldiero Terme
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-07 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.4%
  • xG (showing): Este 1.36 — Caldiero Terme 1.24 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 43.5% · Probability edge: +4.7 pts · Est. EV: +6.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 15, 2026 (UTC)

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