Statistics / Football / Paraguay. Copa Paraguay / Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs 4 de Mayo

Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs 4 de Mayo Statistics & Analysis

Club Sp. San Lorenzo Club Sp. San Lorenzo
Sep 23, 2026 - 19:00
2 1.41
1 1.19
xG Accuracy: 81%
⚽
4 de Mayo
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Club Sp. San Lorenzo Club Sp. San Lorenzo ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 17, 2026 · 01:45 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-9168055

Closing Odds 1.1
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Club Sp. San Lorenzo win · Club Sp. San Lorenzo 2–1 4 de Mayo
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), 4 de Mayo (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on 4 de Mayo (1X2) by about 23.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Club Sp. San Lorenzo (1X2) 40.5 81.1 -40.7
Draw (1X2) 29.4 11.9 +17.5
4 de Mayo (1X2) 30.1 7.0 +23.1
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 65.4 -17.2
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 34.6 +17.2
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 30.1% on 4 de Mayo (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 7.0%. The difference — about 23.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Club Sp. San Lorenzo (1X2) 1.1 1.1 0.0
Draw (1X2) 7.52 7.52 0.0
4 de Mayo (1X2) 12.76 12.76 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.39 1.39 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.63 2.63 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Club Sp. San Lorenzo; market prices Club Sp. San Lorenzo instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Club Sp. San Lorenzo 1.41 xG vs 4 de Mayo 1.19 → Club Sp. San Lorenzo 40.4%
  • Market: Club Sp. San Lorenzo ~81.1% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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