2 de Mayo vs SOL DE America Statistics & Analysis

2 de Mayo

Sep 22, 2026 - 21:30

0 1.23

4 1.37

xG Accuracy: 35%

SOL DE America

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 SOL DE America SOL DE America ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 16, 2026 · 03:00 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8993568

Closing Odds 1.75

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result SOL DE America win · 2 de Mayo 0–4 SOL DE America

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 0.75 percentage points on 2 de Mayo (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on SOL DE America (1X2) by about 15.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
2 de Mayo (1X2)	31.9	51.4	-19.5
Draw (1X2)	29.6	25.3	+4.2
SOL DE America (1X2)	38.5	23.2	+15.2
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	51.7	-3.5
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	48.3	+3.5

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 38.5% on SOL DE America (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 23.2%. The difference — about 15.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)	Implied Δ (pp)
2 de Mayo (1X2)	1.75	1.75	+0.8
Draw (1X2)	3.45	3.55	-0.3
SOL DE America (1X2)	3.75	3.87	-0.4
Over 2.5 goals	1.79	1.81	-0.0
Under 2.5 goals	1.92	1.94	+0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Copa Paraguay
Fixture: 2 de Mayo vs SOL DE America
Kickoff: 2026-09-22 21:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.5%
xG (showing): 2 de Mayo 1.23 — SOL DE America 1.37 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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