Statistics / Football / Qatar. QSL Cup / Al-Gharafa vs Al Mesaimeer

Al-Gharafa vs Al Mesaimeer Statistics & Analysis

Al-Gharafa Al-Gharafa
Oct 01, 2026 - 15:00
4 1.27
2 1.33
xG Accuracy: 39%
Al Mesaimeer Al Mesaimeer
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Al Mesaimeer Al-Gharafa ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 4-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 25, 2026 · 01:30 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10755829

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Al-Gharafa win · Al-Gharafa 4–2 Al Mesaimeer
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: QSL Cup
  • Fixture: Al-Gharafa vs Al Mesaimeer
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-01 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Away 36.6%
  • xG (showing): Al-Gharafa 1.27 — Al Mesaimeer 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 43.0% · Probability edge: +8.9 pts · Est. EV: +16.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 09, 2026 (UTC)

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