Al-Markhiya vs Al Ahli Doha Statistics & Analysis

Al-Markhiya

Sep 29, 2026 - 17:15

1 1.39

1 1.21

xG Accuracy: 85%

Al Ahli Doha

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Al-Markhiya Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 23, 2026 · 02:08 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10419914

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Al-Markhiya 1–1 Al Ahli Doha

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: QSL Cup
Fixture: Al-Markhiya vs Al Ahli Doha
Kickoff: 2026-09-29 17:15:00
1X2 (model): Home 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.0%
xG (showing): Al-Markhiya 1.39 — Al Ahli Doha 1.21 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 43.3% · Probability edge: +8.5 pts · Est. EV: +16.6%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 06, 2026 (UTC)

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