Al Shahaniya vs Al-Duhail SC Statistics & Analysis

Al Shahaniya

Sep 28, 2026 - 17:15

1 1.37

3 1.23

xG Accuracy: 56%

Al-Duhail SC

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Al Shahaniya Al-Duhail SC ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 22, 2026 · 02:04 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10251086

Closing Odds 1.87

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Al-Duhail SC win · Al Shahaniya 1–3 Al-Duhail SC

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 6.58 percentage points on Al-Duhail SC (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Al Shahaniya (1X2) by about 12.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Al Shahaniya (1X2)	38.5	25.9	+12.6
Draw (1X2)	29.6	25.5	+4.1
Al-Duhail SC (1X2)	31.9	48.7	-16.7
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	57.3	-9.1
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	42.7	+9.1

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 38.5% on Al Shahaniya (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 25.9%. The difference — about 12.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)	Implied Δ (pp)
Al Shahaniya (1X2)	2.99	3.52	-4.4
Draw (1X2)	3.27	3.57	-2.2
Al-Duhail SC (1X2)	2.15	1.87	+6.6
Over 2.5 goals	1.68	1.63	+2.0
Under 2.5 goals	2.08	2.19	-2.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: QSL Cup
Fixture: Al Shahaniya vs Al-Duhail SC
Kickoff: 2026-09-28 17:15:00
1X2 (model): Home 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Away 31.9%
xG (showing): Al Shahaniya 1.37 — Al-Duhail SC 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 43.0% · Probability edge: +8.8 pts · Est. EV: +14.0%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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