Al-Sailiya vs Al-Rayyan SC Statistics & Analysis

Al-Sailiya

Sep 28, 2026 - 17:15

1 1.21

1 1.39

xG Accuracy: 85%

Al-Rayyan SC

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Al-Rayyan SC Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 22, 2026 · 02:04 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10251052

Closing Odds 1.76

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Draw · Al-Sailiya 1–1 Al-Rayyan SC

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Al-Sailiya (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 9.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Al-Sailiya (1X2)	31.0	25.9	+5.1
Draw (1X2)	29.5	22.8	+6.7
Al-Rayyan SC (1X2)	39.5	51.3	-11.8
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	57.9	-9.7
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	42.1	+9.7

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 42.1%. The difference — about 9.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Al-Sailiya (1X2)	3.49	3.49
Draw (1X2)	3.97	3.97
Al-Rayyan SC (1X2)	1.76	1.76
Over 2.5 goals	1.61	1.61
Under 2.5 goals	2.21	2.21

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: QSL Cup
Fixture: Al-Sailiya vs Al-Rayyan SC
Kickoff: 2026-09-28 17:15:00
1X2 (model): Home 31.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 39.5%
xG (showing): Al-Sailiya 1.21 — Al-Rayyan SC 1.39 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 42.0% · Probability edge: +9.8 pts · Est. EV: +16.6%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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