Al Wakrah vs Al-Sailiya Statistics & Analysis

Al Wakrah

Sep 20, 2026 - 15:00

1 1.33

0 1.27

xG Accuracy: 64%

Al-Sailiya

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Al Wakrah Al Wakrah ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 02:16 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8687066

Closing Odds 2.0

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Al Wakrah win · Al Wakrah 1–0 Al-Sailiya

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Al-Sailiya (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 5.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Al Wakrah (1X2)	36.6	44.8	-8.2
Draw (1X2)	29.6	26.3	+3.3
Al-Sailiya (1X2)	33.8	28.9	+4.9
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	54.0	-5.8
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	46.0	+5.8

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 46.0%. The difference — about 5.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE5)
Al Wakrah (1X2)	2.0	2.0
Draw (1X2)	3.4	3.4
Al-Sailiya (1X2)	3.1	3.1
Over 2.5 goals	1.75	1.75
Under 2.5 goals	2.05	2.05

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: QSL Cup
Fixture: Al Wakrah vs Al-Sailiya
Kickoff: 2026-09-20 15:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
xG (showing): Al Wakrah 1.33 — Al-Sailiya 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 46.0% · Probability edge: +5.8 pts · Est. EV: +8.8%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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