Statistics / Football / New-Zealand. National League - National / Auckland United vs Napier City Rovers

Auckland United vs Napier City Rovers Statistics & Analysis

Auckland United Auckland United
Oct 04, 2026 - 00:00
7 1.20
1 1.40
xG Accuracy: 18%
Napier City Rovers Napier City Rovers
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Napier City Rovers Auckland United ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 7-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 00:45 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11655777

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Auckland United win · Auckland United 7–1 Napier City Rovers
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: National League - National
  • Fixture: Auckland United vs Napier City Rovers
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-04 00:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 30.6% · Draw 29.5% · Away 40.0%
  • xG (showing): Auckland United 1.2 — Napier City Rovers 1.4 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 38.0% · Probability edge: +13.8 pts · Est. EV: +32.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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National League - National National League - National — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Miramar 3 2 1 0 7
2 Cashmere Technical 2 2 0 0 6
3 Auckland United 2 1 1 0 4
4 Auckland City 2 1 1 0 4
5 Wellington Olympic 3 1 1 1 4
6 Ferrymead Bays 3 1 1 1 4
7 Birkenhead United 2 1 0 1 3
8 Eastern Suburbs 2 0 1 1 1
9 Napier City Rovers 2 0 1 1 1
10 Wellington Phoenix II 3 0 1 2 1
11 Auckland FC 2 2 0 0 2 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Cashmere Technical 2 14 0 +14 6
2 Auckland United 2 8 2 +6 4
3 Miramar 3 7 3 +4 7
4 Auckland City 2 6 4 +2 4
5 Wellington Olympic 3 6 6 0 4
6 Ferrymead Bays 3 3 5 -2 4
7 Auckland FC 2 2 3 5 -2 0
8 Eastern Suburbs 2 2 4 -2 1
9 Napier City Rovers 2 2 8 -6 1
10 Birkenhead United 2 1 4 -3 3
11 Wellington Phoenix II 3 1 12 -11 1