Statistics / Football / Kosovo. Superliga / Drita vs Gjilani

Drita vs Gjilani Statistics & Analysis

Drita Drita
Sep 13, 2026 - 17:00
0 1.38
0 1.22
xG Accuracy: 49%
Gjilani Gjilani
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Drita Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 11, 2026 · 01:40 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7981730

Closing Odds 1.82
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Drita 0–0 Gjilani
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Gjilani (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Gjilani (1X2) by about 7.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Drita (1X2) 39.0 46.6 -7.6
Draw (1X2) 29.5 29.0 +0.5
Gjilani (1X2) 31.5 24.4 +7.1
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 31.5% on Gjilani (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 24.4%. The difference — about 7.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: SBO

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Drita (1X2) 1.82 1.82 0.0
Draw (1X2) 2.92 2.92 0.0
Gjilani (1X2) 3.47 3.47 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Superliga
  • Fixture: Drita vs Gjilani
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-13 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.5%
  • xG (showing): Drita 1.38 — Gjilani 1.22 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.4% · Implied: 48.2% · Probability edge: +6.2 pts · Est. EV: +6.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Superliga Superliga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Prishtina 6 6 0 0 18
2 Malisheva 7 5 1 1 16
3 Dukagjini 7 3 3 1 12
4 Drita 6 3 2 1 11
5 Gjilani 7 3 2 2 11
6 Ballkani 7 3 1 3 10
7 Drenica Skënderaj 7 2 3 2 9
8 Feronikeli 7 2 0 5 6
9 Llapi 7 1 0 6 3
10 Vushtrria 7 0 0 7 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Malisheva 7 19 6 +13 16
2 Prishtina 6 18 4 +14 18
3 Gjilani 7 10 8 +2 11
4 Drenica Skënderaj 7 9 7 +2 9
5 Ballkani 7 9 8 +1 10
6 Dukagjini 7 8 5 +3 12
7 Drita 6 8 5 +3 11
8 Llapi 7 8 21 -13 3
9 Feronikeli 7 5 13 -8 6
10 Vushtrria 7 3 20 -17 0