Statistics / Football / Malaysia. FA Cup / Penang vs Johor Darul Takzim FC

Penang vs Johor Darul Takzim FC Statistics & Analysis

Penang Penang
Sep 20, 2026 - 09:00
2 1.09
7 1.51
xG Accuracy: 17%
Johor Darul Takzim FC Johor Darul Takzim FC
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (9 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Johor Darul Takzim FC Johor Darul Takzim FC ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 2-7 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:00 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8659416

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Johor Darul Takzim FC win · Penang 2–7 Johor Darul Takzim FC
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: FA Cup
  • Fixture: Penang vs Johor Darul Takzim FC
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-20 09:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 25.8% · Draw 28.9% · Away 45.3%
  • xG (showing): Penang 1.09 — Johor Darul Takzim FC 1.51 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.5%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.3% · No 46.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.3% · No 46.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.2%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: AI–Market Conflict - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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