Hemel Hempstead Town vs Wingate & Finchley Statistics & Analysis

Hemel Hempstead Town

Sep 19, 2026 - 14:00

1 1.38

1 1.22

xG Accuracy: 85%

Wingate & Finchley

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Hemel Hempstead Town Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 02:34 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8693580

Closing Odds 1.4

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Draw · Hemel Hempstead Town 1–1 Wingate & Finchley

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Wingate & Finchley (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Wingate & Finchley (1X2) by about 15.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Hemel Hempstead Town (1X2)	39.0	63.9	-24.9
Draw (1X2)	29.5	19.9	+9.7
Wingate & Finchley (1X2)	31.5	16.3	+15.2
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	60.0	-11.8
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	40.0	+11.8

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 31.5% on Wingate & Finchley (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 16.3%. The difference — about 15.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE5)
Hemel Hempstead Town (1X2)	1.4	1.4
Draw (1X2)	4.5	4.5
Wingate & Finchley (1X2)	5.5	5.5
Over 2.5 goals	1.57	1.57
Under 2.5 goals	2.35	2.35

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: FA Cup
Fixture: Hemel Hempstead Town vs Wingate & Finchley
Kickoff: 2026-09-19 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.5%
xG (showing): Hemel Hempstead Town 1.38 — Wingate & Finchley 1.22 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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