Monagas SC vs Zamora FC Statistics & Analysis

Monagas SC

Sep 16, 2026 - 22:00

1 1.35

0 1.25

xG Accuracy: 64%

Zamora FC

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Monagas SC Monagas SC ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 09, 2026 · 01:20 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7696342

Closing Odds 2.11

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Monagas SC win · Monagas SC 1–0 Zamora FC

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Zamora FC (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Zamora FC (1X2) by about 5.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Monagas SC (1X2)	37.6	43.4	-5.8
Draw (1X2)	29.6	29.3	+0.2
Zamora FC (1X2)	32.9	27.3	+5.6
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	46.3	+1.9
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	53.7	-1.9

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 32.9% on Zamora FC (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 27.3%. The difference — about 5.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Monagas SC (1X2)	2.11	2.11
Draw (1X2)	3.12	3.12
Zamora FC (1X2)	3.35	3.35
Over 2.5 goals	2.03	2.03
Under 2.5 goals	1.75	1.75

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Primera División
Fixture: Monagas SC vs Zamora FC
Kickoff: 2026-09-16 22:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
xG (showing): Monagas SC 1.35 — Zamora FC 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera División — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Metropolitanos FC	24	16	5	3	53
2	Deportivo Tachira FC	24	14	5	5	47
3	Real Esppor Club	24	12	7	5	43
4	UCV	24	11	5	8	38
5	Carabobo FC	24	9	10	5	37
6	Portuguesa FC	24	9	10	5	37
7	Puerto Cabello	24	9	9	6	36
8	Estudiantes de Merida FC	24	10	6	8	36
9	Caracas FC	24	5	11	8	26
10	Monagas SC	24	7	4	13	25
11	Zamora FC	24	6	7	11	25
12	Rayo Zuliano	24	7	4	13	25
13	Trujillanos FC	24	3	6	15	15
14	Academia Anzoátegui	24	3	5	16	14

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Metropolitanos FC	24	41	19	+22	53
2	Deportivo Tachira FC	24	41	26	+15	47
3	Real Esppor Club	24	36	22	+14	43
4	UCV	24	36	31	+5	38
5	Carabobo FC	24	35	22	+13	37
6	Portuguesa FC	24	34	24	+10	37
7	Estudiantes de Merida FC	24	33	30	+3	36
8	Puerto Cabello	24	31	23	+8	36
9	Rayo Zuliano	24	30	46	-16	25
10	Monagas SC	24	26	35	-9	25
11	Caracas FC	24	24	31	-7	26
12	Zamora FC	24	24	35	-11	25
13	Trujillanos FC	24	21	44	-23	15
14	Academia Anzoátegui	24	21	45	-24	14