Linense vs Grêmio Prudente Statistics & Analysis

Linense

Sep 20, 2026 - 13:00

1 1.17

2 1.43

xG Accuracy: 82%

Grêmio Prudente

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Grêmio Prudente Grêmio Prudente ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:48 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8677049

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Grêmio Prudente win · Linense 1–2 Grêmio Prudente

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Copa Paulista
Fixture: Linense vs Grêmio Prudente
Kickoff: 2026-09-20 13:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 29.3% · Draw 29.4% · Away 41.4%
xG (showing): Linense 1.17 — Grêmio Prudente 1.43 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
Model: 48.2% · Implied: 41.5% · Probability edge: +6.7 pts · Est. EV: +13.3%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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