Primavera SP vs Noroeste Statistics & Analysis

Primavera SP

Sep 12, 2026 - 21:00

2 1.44

2 1.16

xG Accuracy: 68%

Noroeste

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Primavera SP Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 09, 2026 · 08:00 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7740033

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Primavera SP 2–2 Noroeste

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Copa Paulista
Fixture: Primavera SP vs Noroeste
Kickoff: 2026-09-13 20:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.9% · Draw 29.3% · Away 28.8%
xG (showing): Primavera SP 1.44 — Noroeste 1.16 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
Model: 48.2% · Implied: 38.6% · Probability edge: +9.6 pts · Est. EV: +18.1%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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