Statistics / Football / Brazil. Cearense - 3 / Acopiara vs Esporte Limoeiro

Acopiara vs Esporte Limoeiro Statistics & Analysis

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Acopiara
Sep 20, 2026 - 20:00
1 1.38
0 1.22
xG Accuracy: 64%
Esporte Limoeiro Esporte Limoeiro
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Acopiara Acopiara ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 02:42 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8695919

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Acopiara win · Acopiara 1–0 Esporte Limoeiro
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Cearense - 3
  • Fixture: Acopiara vs Esporte Limoeiro
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-20 18:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.5%
  • xG (showing): Acopiara 1.38 — Esporte Limoeiro 1.22 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Cearense - 3 Cearense - 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Vila Real 6 4 2 0 14
2 Acopiara 6 4 1 1 13
3 Esporte Limoeiro 6 3 1 2 10
4 Pacatuba 6 2 4 0 10
5 Calouros do Ar 6 2 0 4 6
6 Tianguá 6 1 1 4 4
7 Palmacia 6 0 1 5 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Acopiara 6 12 7 +5 13
2 Vila Real 6 9 5 +4 14
3 Pacatuba 6 8 6 +2 10
4 Calouros do Ar 6 8 11 -3 6
5 Esporte Limoeiro 6 7 4 +3 10
6 Tianguá 6 6 10 -4 4
7 Palmacia 6 5 12 -7 1