Sassuolo W vs Roma W Statistics & Analysis

Sassuolo W

Sep 13, 2026 - 10:00

1 1.25

7 1.35

xG Accuracy: 20%

Roma W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Roma W Roma W ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-7 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 09, 2026 · 00:43 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7691443

Closing Odds 1.76

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Roma W win · Sassuolo W 1–7 Roma W

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Sassuolo W (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 10.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Sassuolo W (1X2)	32.9	24.3	+8.6
Draw (1X2)	29.6	24.3	+5.3
Roma W (1X2)	37.6	51.5	-13.9
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	58.4	-10.2
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	41.6	+10.2

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 41.6%. The difference — about 10.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Sassuolo W (1X2)	3.73	3.73
Draw (1X2)	3.73	3.73
Roma W (1X2)	1.76	1.76
Over 2.5 goals	1.58	1.58
Under 2.5 goals	2.22	2.22

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Serie A Cup Women
Fixture: Sassuolo W vs Roma W
Kickoff: 2026-09-13 10:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.6%
xG (showing): Sassuolo W 1.25 — Roma W 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 42.0% · Probability edge: +9.8 pts · Est. EV: +16.6%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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