Statistics / Football / Portugal. Taça de Portugal / O Elvas vs União de Leiria

O Elvas vs União de Leiria Statistics & Analysis

O Elvas O Elvas
Sep 19, 2026 - 17:00
0 1.32
2 1.28
xG Accuracy: 57%
União de Leiria União de Leiria
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 O Elvas União de Leiria ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 03:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8705800

Closing Odds 1.52
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result União de Leiria win · O Elvas 0–2 União de Leiria
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices O Elvas (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on O Elvas (1X2) by about 19.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
O Elvas (1X2) 36.1 16.5 +19.6
Draw (1X2) 29.7 24.4 +5.2
União de Leiria (1X2) 34.2 59.0 -24.8
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 50.3 -2.1
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 49.7 +2.1
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 36.1% on O Elvas (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 16.5%. The difference — about 19.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
O Elvas (1X2) 5.28 5.43 -0.3
Draw (1X2) 3.61 3.67 -0.2
União de Leiria (1X2) 1.52 1.52 +0.5
Over 2.5 goals 1.85 1.86 +0.1
Under 2.5 goals 1.86 1.88 -0.1

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Taça de Portugal
  • Fixture: O Elvas vs União de Leiria
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-19 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): O Elvas 1.32 — União de Leiria 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.5% · Implied: 46.6% · Probability edge: +7.9 pts · Est. EV: +14.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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