China vs Tajikistan Statistics & Analysis

China

Oct 06, 2026 - 11:35

0 1.32

1 1.28

xG Accuracy: 64%

Tajikistan

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 China Tajikistan ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 30, 2026 · 01:35 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11910391

Closing Odds 2.05

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Tajikistan win · China 0–1 Tajikistan

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 7.97 percentage points on China (1X2) between PRE20 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Tajikistan (1X2) by about 7.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
China (1X2)	36.1	43.8	-7.7
Draw (1X2)	29.7	29.0	+0.7
Tajikistan (1X2)	34.2	27.2	+7.0

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 34.2% on Tajikistan (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 27.2%. The difference — about 7.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE1 · Book: bet365 us

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market	Early (PRE20)	Closing (PRE1)	Implied Δ (pp)
China (1X2)	1.75	2.05	-8.0
Draw (1X2)	3.4	3.1	+2.3
Tajikistan (1X2)	4.2	3.3	+5.6

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Friendlies
Fixture: China vs Tajikistan
Kickoff: 2026-10-06 11:35:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
xG (showing): China 1.32 — Tajikistan 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
Model: 54.5% · Implied: 48.3% · Probability edge: +6.2 pts · Est. EV: +7.9%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 06, 2026 (UTC)

Explore More Predictions Content

Get Premium Predictions for China & Tajikistan!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now

Back to Statistics